Management assessmentof the risk situation
The current risk situation is assessed on the basis of our RMS. The system is based on the requirements of the KonTraG and is continually evolving. During the year under review, there were no major methodological changes to that system.
On December 31, 2017, DB Group’s main risks were in the area of production and technology. In comparison to the previous year, the total risk position based on the forecast for the following year increased slightly in the year under review (€ +0.3 billion). This was due, among other things, to uncertainties relating to energy price development and additional measures to improve punctuality and quality. #PUNCTUALITY
For the forecast of development in the 2018 financial year, risks amounting to € 0.4 billion exist (thereof very likely (vl): € 0.2 billion), including countermeasures. These risks are primarily in the areas of production and technology, procurement and energy market as well as economic climate, market and competition.
Opportunities in relation to the forecast of development in financial year 2018 exist in the amount of € 0.1 billion (thereof vl: € 0.1 billion). These opportunities exist in production and technology.
We have addressed further quality improvements in relation to punctuality and comfort and convenience on rail transport in Germany through the comprehensive program Railway of the Future (departure Economic).
Third-party evaluation is also an important indicator for overall risk assessment. In addition to internal risk assessment, DB Group’s creditworthiness and its aggregated default risk is also assessed by the two rating agencies. Moody’s and S&P. Their external assessments of DB Group’s overall risk position are reflected in the good ratings. Nevertheless, the profit and the debt situation have also been reflected in the assessments of the rating agencies.
In terms of organization, we have created all of the conditions necessary to enable the early identification of possible risks. Our continuous risk management and the active management of key risk categories help to limit risks within DB Group. Key strategic opportunities and risks were identified at the business unit level and recorded in the course of the Strategic Management Process (SMP) for operationalization with measures. Our analyses of opportunities and risks, countermeasures, hedging and precautionary measures, together with the opinion of the Group Management Board based on the current risk assessment and our medium-term planning (MTP), indicate that there are no risks that, individually or jointly, could have an impact on the net assets or the financial or profit position of DB Group and would pose a threat to the Group as a going concern.