2017 Integrated Report – Departure into a new era

Profitable quality leader

Anticipated development of DB Group

2017

2018

2020

Volume sold rail passenger transport (Germany) (billion pkm)

82.3

~84.5

Volume sold rail freight transport (billion tkm)

92.7

~98

Train kilometers on track infrastructure
(billion train-path km)

1.1

~1.1

Shipments in European land transport (million)

100.5

~103

Air freight volume (export) (million t)

1.3

~1.3

Ocean freight volume (export) (million TEU)

2.2

~2.3

Customer satisfaction – passengers (SI)

75.8

~78

~79

Punctuality DB Group (rail) in Germany (%)

93.9

~95

>95

     Punctuality DB Long-Distance (%)

78.5

82

Revenues (€ billion)

42.7

~44

EBIT adjusted (€ billion)

2.15

≥2.2

ROCE (%)

6.1

~6.0

≥8.0

Redemption coverage (%)

18.7

≥18.5

≥25

Volume sold should increase in the 2018 financial year as a result of the improved performance and the full-year effectiveness of the Berlin –Munich line. Train-path demand should therefore also increase in the 2018 financial year. The increase in demand for regional rail passenger transport due to additional regionalization funds as well as for rail freight transport as a result of stimuli created by the master plan for rail freight transport will also have an impact in this respect. The trend of steadily increasing train-path demand from non-Group customers will continue.

In 2018, our focus is on improving punctuality. At DB Long-Distance we intend to significantly improve punctuality by consistently continuing and expanding our measures within the framework of the Railway of the Future program and by increasingly using new ICE 4 trains. #Punctuality

Positive economic and market expectations are also reflected in the anticipated performance development by DB Schenker. We expect all lines of business to grow at a faster pace than the market.

Income and financial position

  • Further improvements anticipated in the 2018 financial year.
  • The development is based on our expectations regarding market, competition and environmental developments, as well as the successful implementation of planned measures.

DB Group

  • The main drivers of revenue growth will be DB Schenker, DB Arriva and DB Long-Distance in particular.
  • In terms of profits, we do not expect revenue gains to be fully mirrored in the development of profits. In this context, additional expenses, for example from collective bargaining agreement wage increases and our Rail­­way of the Future quality program, have a particular impact.
  • ROCE is expected to remain stable at best as a result of the slightly positive development of adjusted EBIT in conjunction with a proportionately larger increase in capital employed.
  • Redemption coverage should be on a par with the previous yearʼs level due to the noticeable increase in net financial debt.

Business units

Anticipated development (€ million)

Revenues adjusted

EBIT adjusted

2017

2018

2017

2018

DB Long-Distance

4,347

381

DB Regional

8,734

508

DB Arriva

5,345

301

DB Cargo

4,528

– 90

DB Schenker

16,430

477

DB Netze Track

5,364

687

DB Netze Stations

1,265

233

DB Netze Energy

2,794

72

above previous year’s figure 
 at previous yearʼs level
 below previous yearʼs figure

DB Long-Distance

At DB Long-Distance, we expect revenues to be above the previous yearʼs level in the 2018 financial year, driven by a more favorable market and competitive environment, measures to increase quality and the new Berlin – Munich link. This is also positively reflected in the development of adjusted EBIT.

DB Regional

We expect DB Regional to generate higher revenues in the 2018 financial year. Supported by measures within the framework of Railway of the Future, we also expect an increase in operating profit.

DB Arriva

Positive effects in the Mainland Europe line of business should be noticeable at DB Arriva in the 2018 financial year. We therefore expect revenue development above the previous yearʼs level. Due to the difficult market environment in the bus and rail business in Great Britain, among other things, operating profit is expected to remain at the previous yearʼs level.

DB Cargo

At DB Cargo, we expect an increase in volume sold in the 2018 financial year due to the elimination of operating restrictions from the year under review and the initial effects of the master plan for rail freight transport. Revenues should therefore increase. Operating profit should therefore be above the previous yearʼs level.

DB Schenker

In the 2018 financial year, we expect further growth at DB Schenker resulting from both volume and price effects. This development should also have a positive impact on adjusted EBIT.

DB Netze Track

In the 2018 financial year, we expect revenue development at DB Netze Track to be slightly positive as a result of both volume and price effects. Adjusted EBIT is also expected to improve in conjunction with Railway of the Future measures.

DB Netze Stations

At DB Netze Stations, revenues are expected to increase in the 2018 financial year particularly in connection with price effects. Increased costs, however, will result in operating profit development being slightly below the previous yearʼs level.

DB Netze Energy

At DB Netze Energy, revenue development is expected to be at best at the previous yearʼs level due to various price and volume effects from the individual products. Due to additional costs, we expect a decline in operating profit development.