2017 Integrated Report – Departure into a new era

Passenger transport

Anticipated market development (%)

2017

2018

German passenger transport (based on pkm)

+1.1

~+1.0

Expectations for 2018 are rounded off to the nearest half percentage point.

In 2018, German passenger transport will continue to grow according to our forecast, while the growth in volume sold should remain on the level of the year under review. A signif­­icant factor in this respect is the foreseeable positive development of employment figures and disposable income. At the same time, fuel prices are expected to rise.

Under these conditions, we expect solid growth for rail passenger transport supported by our measures to improve our offerings and quality. Long-distance transport in particular should develop above average, due among other things to the commissioning of the Munich – Berlin line in December 2017.

We expect a decrease in public road passenger transport. Although long-distance bus services will continue to grow again following consolidation, regional bus services are expected to continuously decline due to demographic development.

Motorized individual transport and domestic air transport will likely also post further growth thanks to a positive labor market situation and income development and continually relatively low fuel and kerosene prices.

Despite the fact that the situation in Great Britain remains fraught with uncertainties as a result of Brexit, the European passenger transport market appears to be developing generally positively. Rising employment figures and disposable income combined with rising fuel prices should have a positive impact on demand, particularly in rail passenger transport. Above-average growth is expected particularly in countries with intensive intra- and intermodal competition, significant capital expenditures on infrastructure and vehicle fleets, and consistent measures to liberalize markets.