Management assessment of the risk situation
The current risk situation is assessed on the basis of our RMS. The system is based on the requirements of the KonTraG and is continually evolving. During the year under review, there were no major methodological changes to that system.
On December 31, 2018, DB Group’s main risks were in the area of production and technology. In comparison to the previous year, the year under review’s total risk position relating to the EBITforecast for the following year has reduced slightly (€ –0.2 billion). Amongst other reasons, this is because risks with a higher probability of occurrence have already been almost completely accounted for in the forecast.
For the forecast of EBIT development. in the 2019 financial year, risks after taking into consideration countermeasures amounting to € 0.2 billion exist (thereof very likely (vl): € 0.1 billion). These risks are primarily in the areas of personnel, production and technology, as well as economic climate, market and competition.
Opportunities beyond the EBIT forecast exist in the amount of € 0.1 billion (thereof vl: € 0.0 billion). These opportunities exist in production and technology.
We have addressed further quality improvements relating to punctuality and journey comfort in rail transport in Germany in our Agenda for a Better Railway and the five-point plan to be implemented in 2019.
Third-party evaluation is also an important indicator for overall risk assessment. In addition to internal risk assessment, DB Group’s creditworthiness and its aggregated default risk is also assessed by the two rating agencies Moody’s and S&P. Their external assessments of DB Group’s overall risk position are reflected in the good ratings.
In terms of organization, we have created all of the conditions necessary to enable the early identification of possible risks. Our continuous risk management and the active management of key risk categories contribute to limiting risks. Key strategic opportunities and risks were identified at the business unit level and recorded in the course of the Strategic Management Process (SMP) for operationalization with measures. The results of our analyses of opportunities and risks, countermeasures, hedging and precautionary measures, together with the opinion of the Group Management Board based on the current risk assessment and our mid-term planning (MTP), indicate that there are no risks that, individually or jointly, could have an impact on the net assets or the financial or profit position of DB Group and would pose a threat to the Group as a going concern.