As a baseline scenario, we expect no shortages on the procurement side of the oil and electricity markets. Even if the OPEC+ group were to fully implement their agreed reductions, US production is likely to continue upward. The International Energy Agency anticipates a balanced market. The risks of rising prices are inherent in potential unplanned production failures.
In Germany, there will continue to be struggles over the design of the new electricity market (Electricity Market 2.0). Short-term price volatility is likely to be further amplified by the ongoing expansion of renewable energies due to the limited ability to forecast them. Wholesale prices are being boosted by the dismantling of conventional capacities. In addition, climate policy plans to accelerate the transition away from coal and a further cost increase of CO₂ emissions are also contributing factors.
We expect price levels in the construction industry to increase further.